Ulsan HD, second but with 12 defeats, host Bucheon on a 15-point gap

The state of play

Ulsan HD are second in K League 1 on 47 points, 15 clear of Bucheon FC 1995 in 11th on 32. The home side have won 14, drawn five and lost 12 of their 31 games, so the position owes more to wins than to consistency.

Recent form is uneven for both. Ulsan have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last 10, averaging 1.3 points a match. Bucheon have won two, drawn three and lost five, averaging 0.9.

The visitors arrive with the weaker defensive trend: 17 goals conceded in those 10 games, against 10 scored. Ulsan scored 15 and conceded 14 over the same stretch.

Head to head

Ulsan have won both meetings this season. They took a 2-1 win at Bucheon on 15 March, then won 1-0 at home on 10 May. Bucheon have not beaten them, and the two games produced an average of two goals.

The numbers behind it

Ulsan have scored 48 league goals from 48.7 expected, so their attack is producing about what the chances warrant. At the other end they have conceded 44 from 45.9 expected, which leaves a goal difference of just plus four for a side in second.

Bucheon's problem is at both ends. They have scored 31 from 31.3 expected, a level return, but have conceded 42 from 45.1 expected and sit on a goal difference of minus 11. Their expected goals against is almost identical to Ulsan's, 45.1 to 45.9, yet they create about 17 fewer expected goals over the season.

That attacking gap is the clearest difference between the sides: 48.7 expected goals for Ulsan, 31.3 for Bucheon.

Our view

The betting market implies about 56% for an Ulsan win, 24% for a draw and 20% for a Bucheon win. Our model leans higher on the home side at 61%, with 22% for the draw and 17% for the visitors.

The gap is small and rests mainly on Ulsan's attacking output and Bucheon's recent defeats. For goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 56% and our model at 59%. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.