Pohang chase a fifth win in six against Anyang as one point splits eighth and ninth

The state of play

Eighth hosts ninth, and the gap is a single point. FC Anyang have 41 from 31 matches; Pohang Steelers have 40 from the same number, with a goal difference of -9 against Anyang's -8.

Neither side arrives in convincing form. Anyang's latest league sequence reads two wins, a draw and two defeats, and over their last 10 they have won three, drawn two and lost five, a return of 1.1 points per match. Pohang's reads defeat, win, two draws and defeat, and their last 10 brought three wins, three draws and four defeats, or 1.2 points per match.

Neither club has a listed absence. The Steelers' side of the news is quiet. On the visitors' side, SBS reports that Anyang won their latest outing with multiple goals from Kim Sang-yeop, extending their winning run to two.

Head to head

The recent meetings favour Pohang clearly. They have won four of the last five, Anyang one, with no draws. The sides have averaged 2.4 goals per game in that spell.

Home advantage has not decided it. Anyang won 1-0 at Pohang in April, and Pohang won 3-2 at Anyang in July. Pohang's other wins, 1-0 and 2-0 in 2025, also came away from home, and their one home success in the sequence was a 2-1 win over Anyang in April 2025.

The numbers behind it

Pohang's attack has underperformed its chances. They have created 39.3 expected goals but scored 28, which is 11.3 fewer than the chances suggested. Their defence has been close to par: 37 conceded against 33.2 expected.

Anyang run the other way. They have scored 39 from 34.6 expected goals, so they have taken their chances well, but they have given up 47 goals against 50.2 expected, the heavier defensive workload of the two.

Recent scoring backs that up. Anyang have scored 10 and conceded 21 in their last 10; Pohang have scored eight and conceded 15.

Our view

The betting market implies about 46% for a Pohang win, 28% for a draw and 26% for an Anyang win. Our model is a little less convinced of the hosts at 43%, with the draw at 27% and Anyang at 30%.

That gap is small, and the supplied numbers give one plausible reason for it: Pohang's weak record in front of goal against Anyang's sharper finishing. Both models put the chance of both sides scoring at about 52%, and over 2.5 goals at 48% in our model and 49% in the market. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.