Jeju SK, two points clear in fourth, visit a Jeonbuk side with one win in 10

The state of play

Fourth hosts fifth in K League 1, and two points separate them. Jeju SK have 46 points from 31 matches; Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors have 44, with a better goal difference of plus nine against plus five.

The recent record favours the visitors clearly. Jeju have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last 10, collecting 1.8 points a match. Jeonbuk have won two, drawn four and lost four in the same span, an average of exactly one point a match.

Chosunbiz reports that Jeonbuk are looking to win this fixture to move back above Jeju in the table. No injuries or suspensions are listed for either side.

Head to head

Jeonbuk hold a large historical edge: 31 wins in 58 meetings, against 11 for Jeju and 16 draws. Those meetings have averaged 2.5 goals.

The recent picture is closer. Jeju won 3-1 on 8 August, but Jeonbuk won 2-0 on 2 May. Before that came a 1-1 draw, a goalless draw and another 1-1 draw, so three of the last five meetings were level.

The numbers behind it

Jeonbuk have scored 39 league goals and conceded 30. Their expected goals are 48.4 for and 40.1 against, so they have created more than any raw scoring total suggests, and they have also allowed chances at a high rate.

Jeju have scored 36 and conceded 31 from 33.8 expected goals for and 35.1 against. Their results have run slightly ahead of the chances they have made, which is worth noting for a side that has scored 14 and let in eight over its last 10.

Jeonbuk have scored 12 and conceded 14 over the same stretch, the clearest sign of where their form has dipped.

Our view

The betting market implies about 48% for a Jeonbuk win, 27% for a draw and 25% for a Jeju win. Our model is less convinced about the hosts at 43%, with the draw at 27% and Jeju at 30%.

The gap is modest, and it points the same way as the recent records: Jeju have collected more points lately, while Jeonbuk's expected-goals totals are stronger over the season. Both estimates still make the home side the more likely winner.

On goals, the market implies about 49% for three or more, and the model has 48%. Both-teams-to-score sits at 53% in the market and 51% in our model. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates rather than predictions.