The state of play
FC Seoul top K League 1 on 62 points from 30 games, with 19 wins, five draws and six defeats. Jeju SK sit third on 46 points, 16 behind, with 12 wins, 10 draws and eight defeats.
The goal columns separate them sharply. Seoul have scored 56 and conceded 25, a goal difference of +31. Jeju have scored 35 and conceded 29, a difference of +6.
Recent form is closer than the table. Seoul have taken 2.0 points per match over their last 10, with six wins, two draws and two defeats, in the sequence L-W-L-W-W-W-W-W-D-D. Jeju average 1.8 over the same period, with five wins, three draws and two defeats: W-D-W-D-W-L-D-W-W-L.
Head to head
The clubs have met 56 times. Home sides have won 23, away sides 15, and 18 meetings ended level. Games between them average 2.64 goals.
The recent meetings favour the visitors on Saturday. Jeju won 2-1 at home in May and 3-2 at home in July 2025. They also won 3-1 at Seoul in May 2025 and 2-0 at home in February 2025. Seoul's only win in the last five came in March, 2-1 away at Jeju.
The numbers behind it
Seoul's expected goals support their record. They have created 51.5 xG and allowed 31.1, so they have scored about five more than the chances suggested and conceded about six fewer.
Jeju's underlying figures are more modest. Their attack has produced 33 xG against 34.2 xG allowed. They have scored two more than expected and conceded five fewer than the chances implied, which may explain how a side with a slightly negative expected-goals balance sits third.
Over the last 10 games Seoul have scored 21 and conceded eight. Jeju have scored 14 and conceded eight, so the defensive records match and the gap lies in attack.
Our view
The betting market implies about 58% for a Seoul win, 24% for a draw and 19% for a Jeju win. Our model is a little more cautious on the hosts at 53%, with the draw at 25% and Jeju at 22%.
The gap is small. The model gives more weight to Jeju's recent results and to the fact that they have won most of the recent meetings. Both views make Seoul favourites, but these are estimates, and football is high-variance.
On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 54% and the model at 51%. Both sides scoring is 54% on the market and 52% in our model.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win58% market53% model1.74 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw24% market25% model4.22 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win19% market22% model5.35 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals54% market51% model1.84 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals46% market49% model2.19 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.