The state of play
Fourth hosts sixth in K League 1 on Matchday 31, with kick-off at 05:00 UTC on 9 October at Daejeon World Cup Stadium. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors sit fourth on 44 points from 30 games. Daejeon Hana Citizen are sixth on 40, four points behind, with the same number of games played.
The recent trends point in opposite directions. Daejeon have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, a run of 2.0 points per match. Their last five league games read D-D-W-W-L. Jeonbuk have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, which is 1.1 points per match. Their last five league games read D-L-D-W-D.
Head to head
The sides have met 28 times, with nine draws. Jeonbuk have won three of the last five meetings and the other two were draws. Daejeon have not won any of them.
The most recent meeting, on 21 July, finished 0-0. Before that, Jeonbuk won 1-0 at Daejeon on 21 March. The five most recent games produced eight goals in total, an average of 1.6, below the 2.75 across all 28 meetings.
The numbers behind it
Daejeon have scored 46 league goals and conceded 37, a goal difference of plus nine. Their expected goals for is 41.8, so they have scored 4.2 more than the chances suggest. Their expected goals against is 39.4, against 37 actually conceded. In the last ten they have scored 23 and conceded 14.
Jeonbuk have scored 38 and conceded 28, a goal difference of plus ten. Their expected goals for is 47.6, the higher figure of the two sides, yet they have scored 9.6 fewer than that. Their expected goals against is 38.3, and they have conceded 10.3 fewer than that. In their last ten they have scored 11 and conceded 12.
The picture is of a Daejeon side finishing well and a Jeonbuk side creating more than it converts while conceding less than the chances suggest.
Our view
The betting market implies about 42% for a Daejeon win, 27% for a draw and 32% for a Jeonbuk win. Our model leans slightly towards the hosts, at 45% for Daejeon, 25% for a draw and 30% for Jeonbuk. The gap is small and fits Daejeon's stronger recent form.
On goals, the market implies about 57% that both sides score and 53% for three or more goals. Our model puts those at 59% and 57%. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance. The 0-0 in July is a reminder that these two can be hard to separate.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 12 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win42% market45% model2.41 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market25% model3.76 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win32% market30% model3.13 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals53% market57% model1.89 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals47% market43% model2.13 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.