The state of play
Club Tijuana and Club Puebla arrive on 15 points apiece, but Tijuana are eighth after 10 games and Puebla ninth after 11. The home side has a game in hand on a level points total.
Tijuana have won four, drawn three and lost three, scoring 15 and conceding 14 for a goal difference of +1. Puebla have won four, drawn three and lost four, with 12 scored, 13 conceded and a goal difference of -1.
Over their last 10 matches, Tijuana have taken 1.5 points a game from four wins, three draws and three defeats. Puebla have taken 1.2 from three wins, three draws and four defeats. Tijuana's latest result in that sequence is a win; Puebla's is a defeat.
On team news, Puebla list Eduardo Mustre Torres as injured with a sprained ankle. No recent-appearance figures are available for him. Tijuana have no listed absences.
Head to head
The 30 meetings between these clubs are split with remarkable evenness: 11 wins for Tijuana, 11 for Puebla and eight draws. Those games have averaged 2.93 goals.
The latest meeting, in February, finished 0-0 in Puebla. Before that came a 4-3 Puebla home win in October 2025 and a 2-0 Puebla win in Tijuana in February 2025. Tijuana won the two fixtures before that, 2-1 and 3-1, both away from home.
The numbers behind it
Tijuana's expected goals tell the more encouraging story. They have created 17.1 xG over 10 games while allowing 13, and their 15 goals scored are a little below what the chances suggest.
Puebla sit on the other side of that ledger. Their 9.4 expected goals for is the lower figure, and the 15.3 against is higher than the 13 goals they have actually conceded. They have scored 12 from 9.4 xG, so some of their output has outrun the quality of their chances.
Across the last 10 games Tijuana have scored 14 and conceded 14, while Puebla have scored 11 and conceded 13. Neither side has been tight at the back, which fits a head-to-head average close to three goals.
Our view
The betting market implies about 51% for a Tijuana win, 25% for a draw and 24% for a Puebla win. Our model is close behind at 51% for the hosts, 26% for a draw and 23% for the visitors.
The gap is small. The model's lean towards Tijuana is consistent with their stronger expected-goals record and better recent points per game, but the difference from the market is within the range of uncertainty.
On goals, the market implies about 53% for over 2.5, while our model puts it at 49%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates rather than predictions.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win51% market51% model1.98 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw25% market26% model3.94 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win24% market23% model4.15 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals53% market49% model1.87 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals47% market51% model2.15 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.