Al-Kholood face an Al-Qadsiah side that has beaten them four times out of four

The state of play

Al-Qadsiah arrive in fourth place with 16 points from seven matches, four more than seventh-placed Al-Kholood, who have 12. Qadsiah have won five, drawn one and lost one, and their goal difference of +8 compares with +2 for the hosts.

Their league sequence reads one draw followed by four wins. Al-Kholood's reads one defeat, a win, a draw, another win and a draw, so they have not lost in their last four but have won only twice in that spell.

Over the last 10 matches in all competitions, Qadsiah have won six, drawn two and lost two, averaging two points a match. Al-Kholood have won three, drawn four and lost three, averaging 1.3.

Head to head

The record is one-sided. Al-Qadsiah have won all four meetings, Al-Kholood none, and there have been no draws.

The scores were 3-0, 4-1, 4-0 and 4-1, the latest being the 4-1 win on 7 March. Qadsiah have scored 15 goals in the four games and conceded two, an average of 4.25 goals a match between the sides.

The numbers behind it

Al-Qadsiah's underlying figures back up their results. They have scored 16 league goals from 15.5 expected goals and conceded eight against 6.7 expected, so the table position is not built on finishing luck.

Al-Kholood have scored 12 from 11.1 expected goals and conceded 10 against 8.2 expected. They have been slightly more productive than their chances suggest at one end and slightly more exposed than their shot quality suggests at the other.

Across the last 10 matches Qadsiah have scored 21 and conceded 10. Al-Kholood have scored 14 and conceded 15, the only one of the two sides with a negative goal difference over that stretch.

Our view

The betting market implies about 61% for an Al-Qadsiah win, 21% for a draw and 18% for an Al-Kholood win. Our model is close, at 60% for the visitors, 21% for a draw and 19% for the hosts.

The gap between the two is a point or less on each outcome, so there is no real disagreement. Both estimates reflect the same things: Qadsiah's stronger recent record, their better expected-goals numbers and their unbeaten run against this opponent. These are estimates rather than predictions, and football is high-variance enough that a 19% outcome still happens about one match in five.