Al-Qadsiah's 21 goals meet Abha's search for a first win

The state of play

Al-Qadsiah are second in the Saudi Pro League with 19 points from eight games: six wins, one draw and one defeat. Their last five league results are four wins and a draw, and across their last 10 matches they have taken two points per game.

Abha are 18th with two points from seven. They have not won this season, with two draws and five defeats, and their last five read two draws and three defeats. Over their last 10 matches they have no wins, three draws and seven defeats, an average of 0.3 points per game.

The hosts will be without Abdulaziz Al-Aliwa, who is out with a thigh injury. He is a regular in the side, with five starts and one goal in his recent run.

Head to head

The clubs have met twice in the past, and neither won. Al-Qadsiah drew 2-2 with Abha on 24 January 2021, and the return fixture on 30 May 2021 finished 1-1. Those meetings averaged three goals.

The numbers behind it

Al-Qadsiah have scored 21 and conceded eight, a goal difference of +13. Their expected goals tally of 20.6 for and 9.2 against suggests the scoring is no fluke: they have created almost exactly what they have scored, and conceded slightly fewer than the chances they allowed.

Abha's goal difference is -8, from five scored and 13 conceded. Their expected goals are 5.8 for and 10.2 against, so the defence has leaked about three more goals than the chances faced would suggest. Even by that measure, they create less than one expected goal per game and concede more than one.

Over the last 10 games Abha have scored seven and conceded 17. Al-Qadsiah have scored 21 and conceded nine in the same span.

Our view

The betting market implies about 82% for an Al-Qadsiah win, 12% for a draw and 6% for an Abha win. Our model leans slightly higher on the home side at 85%, with 10% for a draw and 5% for the visitors.

The gap between the two is small, and both point the same way: the goal difference and expected goals separate these sides widely. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance. Abha have drawn two of their seven league games, and the two past meetings with Al-Qadsiah were drawn as well.