The state of play
Al-Khaleej are 14th on six points, Al-Fayha 13th on seven. Neither has found much to celebrate: Al-Khaleej have no wins from eight, with six draws and two defeats, while Al-Fayha have one win, four draws and three defeats.
Over the last five league games Al-Khaleej have three draws and two defeats. Al-Fayha have one win, three draws and one defeat. Stretched to the last 10 matches, Al-Khaleej average 0.7 points a game and Al-Fayha 0.8.
On team news, no absences are listed for either side. OneFootball reports that Jason Remeseiro is playing well again at Al-Fayha after an early-season injury.
Head to head
The eight meetings so far have produced three wins for each club and two draws, averaging 2.5 goals a game. Two of the last five ended 0-0.
Al-Khaleej won 3-0 at home in September 2025, but Al-Fayha took the most recent meeting 3-1 in January 2026. Al-Khaleej also won 3-0 in December 2023, so when this fixture has produced a winner, the margin has often been wide.
The numbers behind it
Al-Khaleej have scored only four league goals and conceded 11, a goal difference of -7. Their expected goals tell a kinder story at both ends: 7.5 created and 11.1 conceded, so they have scored fewer than the chances suggest.
Al-Fayha have scored eight and conceded 12, a goal difference of -4. Their expected goals against is 16, four more than the goals they have actually let in. They have created 6.9 in expected goals, a little less than their eight goals.
Across the last 10 games Al-Khaleej have scored seven and conceded 17. Al-Fayha have scored eight and conceded 14. Both defences have been under pressure.
Our view
The betting market implies about 45% for an Al-Khaleej win, 28% for a draw and 28% for an Al-Fayha win. Our model is less convinced about the hosts at 39%, with the draw at 29% and an away win at 32%.
The gap is modest. It sits with Al-Fayha's slightly better points tally and Al-Khaleej's lack of a win. On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at 48% and our model at 42%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 12 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win45% market39% model2.24 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market29% model3.63 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win28% market32% model3.58 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals48% market42% model2.09 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals52% market58% model1.92 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.