Winless Al-Fateh host Al-Ahli, who have scored 16 in seven

The state of play

Al-Fateh have played seven games in the Saudi Pro League without a win. Three draws and four defeats leave them 15th on three points, with a goal difference of -7.

Al-Ahli are sixth on 12 points after four wins and three defeats, and their goal difference is +6. Their latest five league results read win, loss, win, loss, loss, so they come to Al-Ahsa after back-to-back defeats. Al-Fateh's sequence is two defeats followed by three draws.

Head to head

Al-Ahli have the stronger record across 28 meetings: 16 wins to Al-Fateh's seven, with five draws. Meetings have averaged 3.11 goals.

The recent run is closer than the overall count. Of the last five, Al-Fateh won two, both at home, 2-1 in December 2025 and 1-0 in August 2024. Al-Ahli won two as hosts, 3-1 in May 2026 and 2-0 in February 2025, and the other game finished 1-1.

The numbers behind it

Al-Fateh have scored four goals in seven games from 7.9 expected goals, so the low tally is not just poor finishing: the chances have been scarce. They have also conceded 11 against 13.2 expected goals against.

Al-Ahli have scored 16 from 16.2 expected goals and conceded 10 from 10.6, so their record matches the quality of chances on both sides.

Over the last 10 matches Al-Ahli have taken 1.3 points per game, with four wins, one draw and five defeats, and a goal record of 18 for and 16 against. Al-Fateh have taken 0.7 per game from one win, four draws and five defeats, scoring six and conceding 14.

Our view

The betting market implies about 65% for an Al-Ahli win, 19% for a draw and 16% for an Al-Fateh win. Our model leans slightly higher on the visitors at 66%, with 19% for the draw and 15% for the hosts.

The gap between the two sets of figures is small. Both reflect the same contrast in goals scored and expected goals, though Al-Ahli's two latest defeats are a reminder of how much variance football carries. These are estimates, not predictions.