The state of play
Ninth hosts seventh on Matchday 27, and the gap is narrow: Shanghai Port have 33 points from 26 games, Zhejiang 31. Port's goal difference of +7 compares with +2 for the hosts, and the difference comes at the back. Port have conceded 33 times, Zhejiang 43.
Port arrive in the better run. Their last five league results read draw, win, win, draw, win, and over the last 10 they have won five, drawn three and lost two for 1.8 points a match. Zhejiang's last five run win, loss, win, draw, loss, and their 10-match record of four wins, two draws and four defeats works out at 1.4 points a match.
Head to head
Port hold a clear record in this fixture: nine wins in 17 meetings, against three for Zhejiang and five draws. Meetings average 2.94 goals.
The recent pattern leans towards stalemate. Three of the last five were draws, 2-2 in May, 2-2 in June 2025 and 0-0 in March 2024. Port won the other two, 3-0 in October 2025 and 3-1 in June 2024. Zhejiang have not won any of those five.
The numbers behind it
Zhejiang score freely and concede freely. They have 45 league goals this season, and their expected goals total of 39.9 suggests the return is slightly above the chances created. At the other end they have allowed 43 goals against 39.5 expected, so the defensive record is broadly what the chances conceded would suggest. In the last 10 matches they have scored 24 and let in 17.
Port's profile is tighter. They have scored 40 and conceded 33, with expected figures of 35.5 for and 29.5 against, so both totals run a little ahead of the underlying chances. Their last 10 brought 15 goals scored and 11 conceded, a lower-scoring pattern than Zhejiang's.
Our view
The betting market implies about 39% for a Port win, 36% for a Zhejiang win and 24% for a draw. Our model leans slightly towards the hosts at 39%, with Port at 36% and the draw at 25%. The two views swap the favourite by a few points, which says the contest is close to even.
On goals, the market implies about 70% for more than 2.5 goals and 71% for both sides scoring. Our model is lower at 63% and 65%. Zhejiang's scoring record points towards goals, while Port's tighter defence and the three recent draws give the model some reason for restraint. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win36% market39% model2.76 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw24% market25% model4.09 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win39% market36% model2.54 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals70% market63% model1.44 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals30% market37% model3.28 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.