Yunnan Yukun's goals meet Chongqing Tonglianglong's winless run of 10

The state of play

Yunnan Yukun are fifth in the Chinese Super League with 38 points from 27 games, six more than ninth-placed Chongqing Tonglianglong on 32. The home side have 11 wins, five draws and 11 defeats. Chongqing have won seven, drawn 11 and lost nine.

Neither side arrives in rhythm. Yunnan's last five read loss, win, loss, draw, win. Chongqing's read draw, loss, draw, loss, draw, a sequence with no win in it.

Over the last 10 matches the gap widens. Yunnan have won four, drawn two and lost four, averaging 1.4 points a game. Chongqing have drawn five and lost five, averaging 0.5, and have not won in that spell.

Head to head

The sides have met once in this data window, and it ended 0-0 on 20 May at Chongqing's ground. That makes it a goalless draw with no home or away wins to separate them, so it offers little guide to how a second meeting will go.

The numbers behind it

Yunnan play open football. They have scored 55 goals and conceded 58, a goal difference of -3, which works out at about two scored and just over two conceded per game. Their recent 10 follows the same pattern: 24 scored, 29 conceded.

Their expected goals say they have been sharper in front of goal than their chances suggest: 41.7 expected for against 55 actual. At the back they have let in 58 from an expected 45.5.

Chongqing are the opposite kind of side. They have scored 28 and conceded 33, with a goal difference of -5. Their expected goals of 22.2 for and 35.4 against are close to the real totals of 28 and 33, though they have scored a little above that rate. In the last 10 they have managed seven goals and shipped 14.

The contrast is plain: Yunnan's games produce goals at both ends, while Chongqing's attack has been scarce and their results have turned into draws and defeats.

Our view

The betting market implies about 57% for a Yunnan win, 23% for a draw and 20% for a Chongqing win. Our model leans slightly higher on the hosts at 59%, with 22% for the draw and 20% for the visitors. The difference is small, and it sits with Yunnan's scoring record and Chongqing's lack of wins.

On goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 60% and our model at 63%. Both teams scoring is estimated at 59% by the market and 60% by the model. Those figures fit Yunnan's high-scoring matches, though Chongqing's seven goals in 10 games pull the other way.

These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.