Shandong Taishan host Zhejiang with seven points and six places between them

The state of play

Shandong Taishan sit fourth in the Chinese Super League with 38 points from 27 games, built on 13 wins, five draws and nine defeats. Zhejiang are tenth on 31 points, seven behind, with 10 wins, six draws and 11 defeats.

The goal difference separates them too: Shandong Taishan are at plus three (47 scored, 44 conceded), while Zhejiang are level at zero (47 scored, 47 conceded). Both sides have scored the same number of goals; the gap in the table comes from the defence.

Recent form is closer than the table. Over their last 10 matches Shandong Taishan have taken 1.7 points per match from five wins, two draws and three defeats. Zhejiang have taken 1.4 from four wins, two draws and four defeats. Zhejiang's league sequence reads loss, win, loss, win, draw, while Shandong Taishan's reads draw, draw, win, loss, win. No team news is available for either side.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 25 times. Shandong Taishan have won 12, Zhejiang nine and four have ended level.

The recent meetings are the notable part. The last five have produced 24 goals, with a 4-1 Zhejiang win in May, 2-2, 4-2 to Shandong Taishan, 3-3 and 3-0 to Shandong Taishan. Across all 25 meetings the average is 3.04 goals a game, so this fixture has tended to be open.

The numbers behind it

Expected goals show two evenly matched sides. Shandong Taishan have created 42.1 xG and conceded 42.0, against 43.4 created and 41.7 conceded by Zhejiang. On that measure Zhejiang have a slightly better attack and defence, though the difference is small.

Shandong Taishan have outscored their chance quality by 4.9 goals in attack, with 47 goals from 42.1 xG, and conceded 44 against 42.0 xG. Zhejiang have scored 47 from 43.4 xG but conceded 47 against 41.7 xG, so their defence has leaked more than the chances suggest.

In the last 10 matches Zhejiang have scored 24 and conceded 18, while Shandong Taishan have scored 17 and conceded 16. Zhejiang's recent games have carried more goals.

Our view

The betting market implies about 53% for a Shandong Taishan win, 22% for a draw and 25% for a Zhejiang win. Our model is close to that: 52% home, 22% draw and 27% away. The slightly higher figure for Zhejiang reflects their expected-goals numbers, but the difference is small and uncertain.

Both sides scoring is put at about 71% by the market and by the model, and more than 2.5 goals at about 73% by both, which fits the high-scoring recent meetings. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.