Urawa's goals and Omiya's draws set up an Emperor Cup tie between near-level sides

The state of play

Urawa Red Diamonds host RB Omiya Ardija in Round 3 of the Emperor Cup, with kick-off at 09:00 UTC on 7 October. No table positions are supplied for either side, so recent results give the clearest picture.

Urawa have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last 10, an average of 1.6 points a match. Their sequence reads WLWWWWLLLD. They score freely and concede freely: 21 goals for and 20 against.

Omiya have won four, drawn one and lost five, an average of 1.3 points a match. Their sequence reads WDLLWLWLWL, which alternates between wins and defeats. They have scored 13 and conceded 13, so their goal difference is level. Urawa's is plus one.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 19 times. The split is close to even: six home wins, six away wins and seven draws. The meetings have averaged 2.32 goals.

Draws dominate the recent record. Three of the last five meetings finished 2-2, including the most recent, on 1 August 2026, when Urawa were the home side. In the other two, the home side won 1-0 each time: Omiya on 30 April 2017 and Urawa away on 8 May 2016.

The numbers behind it

Urawa's attack is the main difference between the sides. They have averaged 2.1 goals a match over their last 10, against 1.3 for Omiya. Their defence has been just as open, at 2.0 conceded a match, against 1.3 for Omiya.

Those profiles point to a match in which Urawa are involved in plenty of goals at both ends, while Omiya's recent games have been tighter. The head-to-head average of 2.32 goals sits between the two.

Our view

The betting market implies about 50% for an Urawa win, 26% for a draw and 24% for an Omiya win. That makes the hosts the more likely winners, but not by a wide margin.

The market puts the chance of both sides scoring at about 54%, and of more than 2.5 goals at about 53%. That fits Urawa's open recent matches and the repeated 2-2 results between these clubs. A clean sheet for either side is put at about 46%.

These are estimates, not predictions. A single cup tie between two sides with mixed form can go either way.