The state of play
Shimizu S-Pulse meet V-Varen Nagasaki in Round 3 of the Emperor Cup, with kick-off at 10:00 UTC on 7 October. Shimizu are the home side, and their recent record is the stronger of the two.
Over their last 10 matches Shimizu have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4, a return of 1.6 points per match. Their sequence, oldest to newest, reads W-W-L-D-L-W-L-W-L-W. They have alternated results lately, and they come in on a win.
Nagasaki have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, which works out at 1.1 points per match. Their sequence is D-W-L-D-L-W-L-L-W-L, and it ends in a defeat. League table positions are not part of the information available for this tie.
Head to head
The sides have met four times, and Nagasaki hold the edge: two wins to Shimizu's one, with one draw.
The two most recent meetings came within a month of each other this year. Shimizu won 3-0 away from home on 5 April, then Nagasaki won 2-1 at Shimizu on 29 April. Before that, the sides drew 4-4 on 1 December 2018, and Nagasaki won 1-0 away on 11 April 2018.
Those four games have averaged 3.75 goals, well above what the recent form of either side would suggest on its own.
The numbers behind it
Shimizu's last 10 matches have produced 9 goals scored and 9 conceded, a goal difference of zero. Their games have been tight, and their record rests on winning narrow contests.
Nagasaki have scored 14 and conceded 20 in the same number of matches, a goal difference of minus 6. They score more than Shimizu, but they concede more than twice as many as they would need to in order to match Shimizu's defensive record.
That contrast sits oddly with the head-to-head history, where goals have been plentiful. Recent form points towards a more controlled game; the previous meetings point the other way.
Our view
The betting market implies about 43% for a Shimizu win, 28% for a draw and 29% for a Nagasaki win. That is a modest lean towards the home side, in line with the gap in points per match. These are estimates drawn from market prices, not predictions.
On goals, the market implies about 45% for three or more goals and 55% for two or fewer. It puts both sides scoring at about 50%, and a clean sheet for at least one side at about 50%. Those figures are finely balanced, and they match the mixed signals in the numbers above.
One-off cup ties are high-variance, and Nagasaki's win in April is a reminder that the form table does not settle the outcome.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakers
- Home win43% market2.34 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market3.57 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win29% market3.42 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals45% market2.20 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals55% market1.83 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.