Avispa Fukuoka favoured by the market despite the poorer form against Yokohama FC

The state of play

Avispa Fukuoka host Yokohama FC in Round 3 of the Emperor Cup, with kick-off at 09:30 UTC on 7 October. The form figures cut against the home side.

Avispa have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, a return of 0.8 points per match. Their sequence reads LLDLLDLWLW, so they have lost more than half of those games. They have scored 12 and conceded 14 in that time, a goal difference of minus two.

Yokohama FC have done better: 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats from 10, or 1.3 points per match. Their sequence is WWLWLLLDLW. They have scored 13 and conceded 13, an even goal difference. Neither side arrives in convincing shape, but the visitors have the stronger recent record.

Head to head

The two clubs have met six times in the supplied record. Avispa have won two, Yokohama FC one, and three have been drawn. The meetings have produced an average of 1.67 goals.

The latest two were both 1-0. Avispa won at home on 4 October 2025, and Yokohama FC won their home fixture on 10 May 2025. Before that, Avispa won 2-0 at home on 12 August 2023, and the sides drew 1-1 on 1 April 2023 and 7 November 2021. Low scores are the pattern: the last five meetings contained no more than two goals.

The numbers behind it

Over their last 10 matches, Avispa have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Yokohama FC have averaged 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. The gap in goals is small. The gap in results is larger: Yokohama FC have collected 13 points from those games to Avispa's 8.

Neither side has a clear edge in attack or defence on those figures. That fits a tie where the market expects few goals.

Our view

The betting market implies about 41% for an Avispa win, 31% for a draw and 29% for a Yokohama FC win. These are estimates of the market's view, not forecasts, and the percentages are rounded. We have no model figure for this fixture, so we offer no separate estimate.

The favouritism for the home side sits at odds with recent form. The one supplied number that points the same way is the head-to-head record, where Avispa have won two of the six meetings to Yokohama FC's one. That is a small sample and should be read cautiously.

The market also implies about 62% for under 2.5 goals and 38% for over, with both sides scoring at about 45%. It puts the chance of at least one clean sheet at about 55%. Cup football is high-variance, and a 41% favourite still fails to win more often than not.