Winless-run sides meet in the Emperor Cup as Tokyo Verdy go in as clear favourites at Gainare Tottori

The state of play

Two sides short of form meet in the Emperor Cup's Round 3 on 7 October, with kick-off at 10:00 UTC. Neither has won more than once in its last 10 matches, but the details separate them.

Gainare Tottori, the home side, have one win, three draws and six defeats from those 10 matches. That is 0.6 points per match. Their sequence, oldest to latest, reads W-D-L-D-L-L-L-L-D-L, and the only win came at the start of the run.

Tokyo Verdy have one win, four draws and five defeats, or 0.7 points per match. Their sequence is L-D-D-L-L-W-D-L-D-L. They have drawn more and lost less, though they also finished that run with a defeat.

League table positions are not part of the information available for this tie, so the comparison rests on recent results alone. No previous meetings between the clubs are supplied either.

The numbers behind it

Both sides have scored 10 goals in their last 10 matches, an average of one a game. The gap is at the back. Tottori have conceded 22, an average of 2.2 per match. Tokyo Verdy have conceded 17, or 1.7.

That makes Tottori's defence the weaker of the two over this stretch, by five goals. Put another way, Tottori have let in more than two goals a game while scoring one.

Neither side has been prolific, so a low-scoring match would fit their recent records. Tottori's leaky defence points the other way.

Our view

The betting market implies about a 15% chance of a Tottori win, 21% for a draw and 63% for a Tokyo Verdy win. Our model is broadly in line, at 17% for the hosts, 22% for a draw and 61% for the visitors. The differences are small, and both views lean towards the away side.

The likeliest explanation is the defensive record above. Tottori have conceded more and collected slightly fewer points per match. Those are the only factors we can point to from the supplied numbers, and they are a thin base for any firm conclusion.

On goals, the market puts the chance of over 2.5 goals at about 55%, and our model agrees at 55%. For both teams to score, the market implies 50% and our model 51%. The chance of at least one clean sheet is about 50% on the market and 49% on our model.

These are estimates, not predictions. Cup football is high-variance, and a side with a 61% estimate can still fail to win.