The state of play
Fifth meets tenth in the Veikkausliiga, and the table puts 12 points between them: Lahti have 36 from 25 matches, SJK 24. Lahti have won 10 and lost nine; SJK have won five, drawn nine and lost 11.
Lahti's latest results read draw, defeat, then three wins in a row. SJK's read win, three draws and a defeat. Over the last 10 matches Lahti have taken 1.7 points per match against SJK's 1.0.
The goal columns separate them too. Lahti have scored 30 and conceded 24, a goal difference of +6. SJK have scored 28 and conceded 35, a difference of -7.
Head to head
The two have met 32 times, with 13 draws, and those games average 2.38 goals. Scores swing widely: 5-5 in July 2024, then a 4-0 for SJK two months earlier.
This season's meetings are split. SJK won 3-2 in June, and Lahti took the return in August by 2-1.
The numbers behind it
Lahti's expected goals tally is 44.4 for and 34.7 against across 25 matches. They have scored 14.4 fewer than that figure and conceded 10.7 fewer than expected, so the defence has done more than the attack to build their position.
SJK sit at 41.0 expected goals for and 41.8 against. Their attack has produced 13 fewer goals than the chances suggest, 28 against 41.0, while the defence has leaked 35 against an expected 41.8.
In the last 10, Lahti have scored 12 and conceded nine; SJK have scored 10 and conceded 12. SJK's sequence of WDDDLLDWLL contains only two wins.
Our view
The betting market implies about 36% for an SJK win, 27% for a draw and 37% for a Lahti win. Our model sees it almost identically at 36%, 29% and 35%. The only visible gap is a slightly higher draw figure from the model.
On goals, the market implies about 60% that both sides score and 55% for more than 2.5 goals; our model is lower at 53% and 47%. These are estimates, not predictions, and the spread of outcomes is wide. Football is high-variance, and Lahti's 12-point lead in the table has not turned into a clear favouritism.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win36% market36% model2.79 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market29% model3.72 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win37% market35% model2.68 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals55% market47% model1.81 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals45% market53% model2.24 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.