The state of play
FF Jaro are 11th in the Veikkausliiga with 20 points from 26 matches. IFK Mariehamn are 12th with 18. The sides are separated by two points and nothing else: each has scored 21 goals, conceded 48 and carries a goal difference of -27.
The recent trend favours the visitors. Mariehamn have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last 10, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Jaro have won two, drawn two and lost six in the same span, scoring six and conceding 16. Jaro's sequence of one win, two draws and six defeats was followed by a win in the latest of the 10.
No absences or team news have been reported for either side.
Head to head
The sides have met 26 times, with seven draws and an average of 2.88 goals a game. Of the last five meetings, Jaro won two (3-0 in May and 2-0 in April 2025), Mariehamn won two (2-0 on 31 August and 3-2 in September 2025) and one finished 1-1.
Mariehamn's most recent win was by two clear goals, so Jaro arrive having lost the latest meeting without scoring.
The numbers behind it
The expected-goals columns separate the two sides more than the table does. Jaro have created 34.3 xG and allowed 42.5, a better balance than Mariehamn's 29 created and 64.5 allowed. Mariehamn have conceded 48 against that 64.5, which means they have let in 16.5 fewer than the chances against them suggest.
Jaro's problem is at the other end. They have scored 21 from 34.3 xG, 13.3 below expectation, and have conceded 5.5 more than their 42.5 xG against. Their finishing and their goalkeeping, taken together, account for much of the gap between their underlying numbers and their position.
Our view
The betting market implies about 42% for a Jaro win, 27% for a draw and 31% for a Mariehamn win. Our model is flatter: 36% for Jaro, 28% for a draw and 35% for Mariehamn. The model gives the visitors more credit, which fits their recent points return of 1.4 a match against Jaro's 0.8.
On goals, the market implies about 53% for three or more in the match, while our model sits lower at 46%. The two views differ on the home side by six percentage points, so the picture is uncertain. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates rather than predictions.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win42% market36% model2.40 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market28% model3.66 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win31% market35% model3.23 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals53% market46% model1.90 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals47% market54% model2.11 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.