The state of play
FC Lahti sit 7th in the Veikkausliiga with 36 points from 26 matches. Turun Palloseura are 9th on 32 points from the same number of games, so four points separate them.
Lahti have won 10, drawn six and lost 10, with a goal difference of plus five. Their league sequence reads L-D-L-W-W. Over their last 10 they have won four, drawn two and lost four, which works out at 1.4 points a match.
Turun Palloseura have won eight, drawn eight and lost 10, and their goal difference is level at zero. Their sequence is L-L-L-D-D, and across the last 10 they have won two, drawn four and lost four, an average of one point a match. The visitors have not won in the five matches that sequence covers.
Head to head
The two clubs have met 25 times. Lahti have won 12, Turun Palloseura nine and four have been drawn, so the hosts hold an edge without dominating the series.
This season has been tight. Turun Palloseura won 2-1 in April, and the return in June finished 0-0. Meetings have averaged 3.24 goals, a figure the two recent games came in well below.
The numbers behind it
Lahti have scored 30 and conceded 25, while their expected goals read 45.4 for and 36.7 against. They have created more than they have taken, and they have allowed fewer chances than their opponents have scored from.
Turun Palloseura have scored 28 and conceded 28. Their expected goals are 38 for and 43 against, so they have given up more chance quality than they have created. They have conceded fewer goals than that figure suggests.
Recent scoring is low on both sides. Lahti have scored 10 and conceded 10 in their last 10 matches; Turun Palloseura have scored eight and conceded nine.
Our view
The betting market implies about 55% for a Lahti win, 24% for a draw and 21% for a Turun Palloseura win. Our model leans slightly lower on the hosts at 53%, with a higher draw figure of 27% and 20% for the visitors. The differences are small.
The two sources split more on goals. The market puts both teams scoring at about 56% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Our model is lower on both, at 47% and 46%, which fits the low recent scoring on each side.
These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win55% market53% model1.83 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw24% market27% model4.15 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win21% market20% model4.71 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals56% market46% model1.78 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals44% market54% model2.29 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.