Ilves host SJK with four of the last five meetings drawn

The state of play

Ilves sit eighth on 35 points from 26 games, eight clear of SJK in tenth on 27. The home side have won 10, drawn five and lost 11, with a goal difference of +4. SJK have won six, lost 11 and drawn nine, and their goal difference is -6.

The draw is SJK's defining habit: nine in 26 is the most common result in their season. Their table sequence reads two wins followed by three draws, while Ilves show a draw, three wins and a defeat.

Over the last 10 matches the sides are closer than the table suggests. Ilves have taken 1.4 points per match and SJK 1.3. Ilves have scored 15 and conceded 10 in that stretch; SJK have scored 11 and conceded 10.

Head to head

The history is almost level. In 35 meetings Ilves have won 13, SJK 11 and 11 have been drawn, an average of 2.94 goals a game.

The recent run leans heavily towards stalemate. Four of the last five meetings were draws: 1-1 at SJK's ground in July 2025, 3-3 in November, 1-1 in May and 2-2 in June. The exception was a 2-1 SJK win in October 2025. Those draws were never goalless, and every one of the last five meetings saw both sides score.

The numbers behind it

Expected goals put the sides on nearly identical attacking footing. Ilves have created 43.3 over 26 games and SJK 43.0, though Ilves have turned that into 43 goals against SJK's 29. SJK's shortfall of 14 goals against their expected figure is the starkest gap in either column.

Defensively, Ilves have faced 48.9 expected goals and conceded 39, so they have allowed fewer than the chances against them imply. SJK have faced 42.8 and conceded 35, a similar pattern. Neither side has been caught out at the back by much more than the quality of chances suggests.

Ilves have the sharper finishing, then, while SJK's season has been defined by chances that did not become goals.

Our view

The betting market implies about 50% for an Ilves win, 25% for a draw and 25% for an SJK win. Our model leans slightly differently, at 48% for Ilves, 28% for the draw and 24% for SJK. The gap is small, and the higher draw figure fits SJK's nine draws and the recent meetings.

On goals, the market implies about 59% for more than 2.5 and 61% for both sides scoring. Our model is more cautious at 49% and 52%. Those are estimates, not forecasts, and football is high-variance enough that none of them settles much.