The state of play
Shenzhen Peng City sit 11th on 28 points from 26 games, one ahead of Henan FC in 12th on 27. The gap is a single point, but the records behind it are very different. Shenzhen have won eight and lost 14, with four draws. Henan have also won eight, but they have lost only nine and drawn nine.
Form points the same way. Henan's last five league games read D-D-D-D-L, so four draws followed by a defeat. Shenzhen's read D-L-D-W-L: one win in five, and two defeats. Over the last 10 matches in all competitions Henan have taken 1.2 points a game from two wins, six draws and two defeats. Shenzhen have taken 1.1 from three wins, two draws and five defeats.
Goal difference separates the clubs more clearly. Shenzhen are on minus 11, having scored 34 and conceded 45. Henan are on minus two, with 33 scored and 35 conceded.
Head to head
Henan have the better recent record in this fixture. In five meetings they have won three, Shenzhen one, and one has been drawn. Henan won the most recent game 1-0, then beat Shenzhen 4-1 in August 2025 and 3-1 in April 2025.
Shenzhen's only win came in April 2024, when they won 2-0 away. The two sides drew 0-0 three months later. The five games have averaged 2.4 goals each, so this is not a fixture that has tended to run away into high scores.
The numbers behind it
Expected goals favour Henan at the back. They have conceded 35 goals against an expected figure of 29.8, so they have given up more than the quality of chances they allowed would suggest. Shenzhen have conceded 45 against 36.3 expected, so their defensive record is worse than even their underlying numbers justify.
At the other end the two are close. Shenzhen have created 38.9 expected goals and scored 34. Henan have created 37.5 and scored 33. Both sides have slightly underperformed in front of goal.
Henan's last 10 matches have brought 16 goals scored and 15 conceded, which fits a run of six draws. Shenzhen's have brought 12 scored and 17 conceded. With the sides so level in attack, the contest may turn on which defence holds firm, and Henan have the stronger case on both the expected and the actual numbers.