Analysis, not fortune.
Italy
4 stories
Frosinone have conceded seven goals from 13 expected against, while Sassuolo, two points behind in the table, are missing two regular starters. Their last meeting ended 1-1.
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Antonio Raimondo scored three times from 0.94 expected goals as Frosinone beat Sassuolo, who had 58% of the ball but faced 21 shots and 10 on target.
4–2
Atalanta beat Venezia 3-1 despite having 36% of the ball and the lower expected-goals figure. Nikola Krstović took the top match rating of 9.3, and Elmas was sent off in the 89th minute.
3–1
Genoa have one point from five games and have conceded 24 goals in their last 10. Fiorentina are only three points better off, but have not lost to this opponent in their last five meetings.
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