Genoa, 19th and without a win, host Fiorentina in a meeting of two struggling sides

The state of play

Genoa sit 19th in Serie A with one point from five matches, having lost four and drawn one. They have not won this season, and their sequence reads loss, draw, then three straight defeats.

Fiorentina are 17th on four points, only three clear. Their record is one win, one draw and three defeats, and they arrive on a run of three consecutive losses after a draw and a win to open the campaign.

Defences define both tables. Genoa have conceded 10 goals and scored three, a goal difference of -7. Fiorentina have let in 12 and scored six, a difference of -6.

Head to head

Fiorentina hold the historical edge: 21 wins from 60 meetings against nine for Genoa, with 30 draws. Half of all meetings have ended level, which is the most common outcome by some distance.

The recent record leans the same way. Fiorentina have not lost any of the last five, winning twice and drawing three times, the latest a goalless draw on 10 May. The previous meeting at this ground finished 2-2. Across all meetings the average is 2.47 goals per game.

The numbers behind it

Genoa's expected goals are as thin as their results. They have created 4.5 xG in five games and allowed 6.2, so the underlying numbers do not suggest they have been unlucky at the back. They have scored three goals, below that attacking figure.

Fiorentina's figures are better: 8.1 xG for and 6.7 against. Their attack has produced six goals, fewer than the chances suggest, while their defence has conceded far more than the 6.7 expected.

Over the last 10 league games the gap widens. Fiorentina have four wins, three draws and three defeats, with 17 goals scored and 16 conceded, or 1.5 points per match. Genoa have two wins, one draw and seven defeats, scoring nine and conceding 24, which works out at 0.7 points per match.

Our view

The betting market implies about 30% for a Genoa win, 29% for a draw and 41% for a Fiorentina win. Our model leans slightly further towards the visitors at 44%, with Genoa on 28% and the draw on 28%.

The difference is small and fits the recent record and expected goals, which favour Fiorentina. For goals, the market puts over 2.5 at about 47% and both teams scoring at 53%; our model is a little lower at 45% and 51%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance, particularly between two sides still searching for form.