The state of play
Ninth meets 11th, and only two points separate them. Frosinone have 10 points from six matches; Sassuolo have eight. Frosinone's last five league games hold one defeat, three wins and a draw. Sassuolo's hold two wins, two draws and a defeat.
The bigger story is at the back for Sassuolo. Fedde Leysen is out with a cruciate ligament injury, and Ismael Koné has a broken ankle. Both are regulars: Leysen started six of the last eight matches he was listed for, Koné seven. Sassuolo News and DAZN both report that the Leysen diagnosis has been confirmed. Cristian Volpato, who has two recent goals, is also injured, though he has been more of a rotation player.
Frosinone are missing Daniel Bîrligea and Florian Grillitsch, both rotation options. Il Messaggero reports that Alvini is weighing a starting place for Fini.
Head to head
Sassuolo have the better record in seven meetings: three wins to Frosinone's one, with three draws. Those games have averaged 2.86 goals.
The most recent, on 2 September, finished 1-1. Before that, Sassuolo won 1-0 in March 2024, and Frosinone's single win in the meetings listed came at home in September 2023, 4-2.
The numbers behind it
Frosinone's defensive record flatters them. They have conceded seven goals but their expected goals against is 13, so opponents have created far more than they have scored. At the other end, Frosinone have scored nine from 8.2 expected goals.
Sassuolo show the reverse. They have conceded 10 goals against 7.4 expected, and scored 10 from 8.9. Their goal difference is zero; Frosinone's is plus two.
Over the last 10 matches Frosinone have five wins, two draws and three defeats, scoring 17 and conceding 12, for 1.7 points per match. Sassuolo have three wins, three draws and four defeats, with 17 scored and 18 conceded, for 1.2 points per match.
Our view
The betting market implies about 38% for a Frosinone win, 26% for a draw and 37% for a Sassuolo win. Our model leans slightly towards the hosts at 39%, with the draw at 26% and Sassuolo at 36%. The gap is small, and the three outcomes are close to level.
Both sides scoring is put at about 66% by the market and 63% by our model. Over 2.5 goals is about 65% on the market and 61% on our model. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win38% market39% model2.64 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw26% market26% model3.91 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win37% market36% model2.74 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals65% market61% model1.53 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals35% market39% model2.88 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.