Analysis, not fortune.
Romania
8 stories
The league leaders have conceded just seven goals in 11 games, but their last four meetings with Botoșani all ended level. Our model gives Dinamo about 66%, a little above the market.
vs
The winless visitors, 16th in the table, took a point from Galați despite 29 home shots and two red cards in four minutes. Pap's match rating of 9.9 was the highest on the pitch.
1–1
Fourteenth-placed Oțelul Galați have lost four of their last five, but they meet a Csíkszereda side with one point from 11 matches and an expected-goals deficit of 16 over the season.
vs
Universitatea Cluj had 65% of the ball, 17 shots and 11 corners, but Rapid București scored four, the last of them from Onea in the 88th minute, to win a seven-goal match.
3–4
Argeș Pitești dominated possession and the shot count but put only two efforts on target. CFR 1907 Cluj defender Anton Krešić scored the only goal.
0–1
Voluntari have conceded 22 goals in ten matches and sit 15th. Seventh-placed Corvinul Hunedoara have let in only nine, and the betting market and our model both make the hosts favourites.
vs
Two points and three places separate the city rivals, yet Universitatea's expected goals outstrip CFR's by a wide margin. CFR have won three of the last five meetings.
vs
Universitatea Cluj trailed at the break, then scored three times after the restart to win the derby 3-1 at CFR 1907 Cluj. Issouf Macalou took a match rating of 7.9.
1–3