Dinamo București's 12-point lead meets a Botoșani side that keeps drawing with them

The state of play

Superliga leaders Dinamo București host tenth-placed FC Botoșani on Matchday 12 with 26 points from 11 games, 12 more than the visitors. They have won eight, drawn two and lost one, and their goal difference of +18 is far beyond Botoșani's +4.

Dinamo's sequence reads four wins and a draw across their last five. Over their last 10 they are unbeaten, with eight wins, two draws and 2.6 points per match.

Botoșani have won three, drawn five and lost three, and their last five show two wins, one defeat and two draws. Across 10 matches they average 1.3 points, with three wins, four draws and three defeats.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 30 times: nine draws, with the remaining 21 split 11 and 10 between them. Recent meetings lean heavily towards stalemate. The last four were 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2, and the last result that was not a draw was a 2-1 Botoșani home win in April 2024.

Those five fixtures produced 11 goals, and the all-time average is 2.07 per game. Dinamo's current scoring rate is well above that, so this season's pattern could pull away from the history.

The numbers behind it

Dinamo have scored 25 goals against an expected total of 22.6 and conceded seven against 11.5 expected. A defence that has let in 4.5 fewer than the chances it allowed suggests a little good fortune in the record, though the underlying gap to Botoșani still stands.

Botoșani sit level with Dinamo on 22.6 expected goals for but have scored only 16, which is 6.6 below that mark. They have conceded 12 against 18.2 expected, so their defence has also outperformed the chances it faced. Over their last 10 they have scored 14 and conceded 10; Dinamo have scored 25 and conceded six.

Our view

The betting market implies about 62% for a Dinamo win, 22% for a draw and 16% for a Botoșani win. Our model leans slightly higher on the hosts at 66%, with 20% for a draw and 14% for the visitors.

The gap is small, and Dinamo's results and goal record sit behind the model's lean. The repeated draws between these clubs are a reason for caution, and football remains high-variance. These are estimates, not predictions.