The state of play
HJK are third in the Veikkausliiga with 42 points from 25 matches, six more than sixth-placed VPS on 36. The two meet at Bolt Arena, Helsinki, at 15:00 UTC on 8 October.
The hosts have won 12, drawn six and lost seven. Their last five league results read D-D-W-W-L, so they have lost once in that run. Across their last ten they have taken 1.5 points per match, with four wins, three draws and three defeats.
VPS have won 10, drawn six and lost nine. Their last five league results read L-L-W-L-W. The longer view is harsher: three wins and seven defeats from their last ten, or 0.9 points per match. They scored eight and conceded 14 in that spell.
Head to head
HJK have the clear record: 31 wins, 10 draws and seven VPS wins from 48 meetings, with 2.83 goals per game on average.
The recent picture is closer. HJK won three of the last five, VPS won one and one was drawn. HJK won 2-1 on 18 July, with VPS scoring in defeat. VPS won 2-1 at home on 22 May. Before that, HJK won 2-0 away on 5 July 2025 and 3-1 at home on 26 April 2025, and the sides drew 1-1 on 20 September 2024.
The numbers behind it
HJK have scored 39 and conceded 29, a goal difference of +10. Their expected goals are 44.7 for and 33.7 against over 25 games. That means they have scored fewer than their chances suggest, and their defence has conceded slightly fewer than expected.
VPS have scored 30 and conceded 25, a goal difference of +5. Their expected goals are 38.5 for and 35.2 against. They have conceded fewer than the chances they allowed would imply, but they have also scored fewer than their expected total.
In the last ten matches HJK scored 12 and conceded 10. VPS scored eight and conceded 14, so the recent trend favours the hosts.
Our view
The betting market implies about 59% for an HJK win, 23% for a draw and 18% for a VPS win. Our model is close: 58% for the hosts, 25% for a draw and 17% for the visitors. The gap between the two is small, and the model's slightly higher draw figure is within the margin of uncertainty.
On goals, the market implies about 56% for more than 2.5 goals and 54% for both sides to score. Our model is lower on both, at 47% and 46%. The supplied numbers do not fully explain that difference. HJK's 10 goals conceded in their last ten matches may be part of it.
These are estimates, not predictions. Football is high-variance, and a single match can differ sharply from the probabilities.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win59% market58% model1.70 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw23% market25% model4.39 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win18% market17% model5.45 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals56% market47% model1.80 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals44% market53% model2.25 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.