Table-topping Club América host a Monterrey side that has lost three of its last five

The state of play

Club América lead the Liga MX Apertura with 20 points from nine games: six wins, two draws and one defeat. Monterrey sit 10th on 13 points, seven behind, with four wins, one draw and four defeats.

The home side's last five league results read W-D-L-W-W, so they have lost only once in that spell. Monterrey's read L-W-D-L-L, which is three defeats, one win and one draw.

Over the last 10 matches in all competitions, América have taken 1.8 points per match from five wins, three draws and two defeats. Monterrey have taken 1.6 from five wins, one draw and four defeats, so the gap over that longer run is much smaller than the one in the table.

Head to head

The two have met 52 times: 22 wins for América, 16 for Monterrey and 14 draws. Those games have averaged 2.48 goals.

The recent record is close to level. Of the last five meetings, América won twice, Monterrey won twice and one finished 2-2. Four of the five were decided by a single goal, and the most recent, in February, ended 1-0 to América.

The numbers behind it

América have scored 21 goals and conceded 10, a goal difference of +11. Their expected goals are 16.5 for and 12 against, so they have scored more than the chances suggest and conceded fewer than they have allowed.

Monterrey have scored 16 and conceded 14, a difference of +2. Their expected goals are 13.8 for and 12.5 against, so their results sit close to the quality of their chances.

The gap in expected goals difference is 4.5 for América against 1.3 for Monterrey. It is real but narrower than the 9-goal difference in actual goal difference.

Our view

The betting market implies about 49% for a Club América win, 26% for a draw and 25% for a Monterrey win. Our model leans higher on the home side at 57%, with 23% for a draw and 21% for an away win.

The difference comes down to América's superior goal difference and expected goals. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.

On goals, the market implies about 56% for more than 2.5 and our model 62%. Both sides scoring is close between the two, at 59% from the market and 61% from our model.