The state of play
Chengdu Rongcheng top the Chinese Super League with 52 points from 26 matches, built on 15 wins, seven draws and four defeats. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger sit 13th on 25 points, 12 places and 27 points behind, with nine wins, eight draws and nine defeats.
The recent picture is closer than the table. Chengdu have taken 1.2 points per match over their last 10, with two wins, six draws and two defeats. Their latest five read draw, win, defeat, win, defeat. Tianjin have averaged two points per match over the same stretch, with six wins, two draws and two defeats, and their latest five read win, win, draw, draw, defeat.
Head to head
The two have met nine times: four wins for Chengdu, two for Tianjin and three draws. Those games average 2.89 goals.
The five most recent meetings were all decided by a single goal, and none ended level. Chengdu won 2-1 away in May and also won the two before that sequence of Tianjin victories in July 2025 and March 2025. Tianjin took both of those, 2-1 each time, so this fixture has rarely been one-sided.
The numbers behind it
Chengdu's underlying figures support their position. They have scored 51 goals from 45 expected, and conceded 30 against 24.8 expected, for a goal difference of plus 21. Their defence has allowed more than the chances against it suggest, which leaves room for improvement at the back.
Tianjin's goal difference is plus four, from 36 scored and 32 conceded. Their expected goals are 29.1 for and 36.4 against, so they have outperformed the chances they have created and faced. Over their last 10 they have scored 17 and conceded 10. Chengdu have scored 15 and conceded 15 in the same period.
Our view
The betting market implies about 53% for a Chengdu win, 25% for a draw and 23% for a Tianjin win. Our model leans less towards the hosts at 48%, with the draw at 25% and Tianjin at 27%.
The gap is modest and comes down to recent results: Chengdu's draw-heavy run and Tianjin's stronger points return pull our estimate away from the market. Both sources put the chance of both sides scoring at 55% to 56%, and over 2.5 goals at 54% to 55%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win53% market48% model1.90 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw25% market25% model4.08 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win23% market27% model4.38 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals55% market54% model1.81 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals45% market46% model2.24 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.