The state of play
Atlas host Guadalajara in Matchday 11 of the Liga MX Apertura with one point and two places between them. Guadalajara are fourth on 18 points from five wins, three draws and two defeats. Atlas are sixth on 17 points, with five wins, two draws and three defeats.
The sides differ most at the back. Guadalajara have conceded 10 goals and sit on a goal difference of +7. Atlas have let in 17 and score only one fewer than they concede, leaving them on -1.
Recent league sequences are close to level. Guadalajara's last five read L-D-W-W-D, while Atlas's read W-D-L-D-L.
Head to head
The 47 meetings between the clubs have produced 20 wins for Guadalajara, 13 for Atlas and 14 draws. They average 2.23 goals a game.
Guadalajara are unbeaten in the last five, with three wins and two draws. They won 1-0 on 30 March and 2-1 on 8 March, drew 0-0 on 4 January, won 4-1 on 26 October and drew 1-1 in April 2025. Atlas scored in only three of those five.
The numbers behind it
Guadalajara's expected goals back up their record. They have created 13.3 xG and allowed 10.4, so their 10 goals conceded sit almost exactly on what the chances suggested.
Atlas have created 13.8 xG and allowed 16.8. Their 17 goals against match that figure closely, so their defensive problem looks real rather than unlucky.
Over the last 10 matches in all competitions Guadalajara have won six, drawn three and lost one, scoring 19 and conceding eight, for 2.1 points a match. Atlas have won five, drawn two and lost three, scoring 16 and conceding 17, for 1.7 points a match.
Our view
The betting market implies about 43% for a Guadalajara win, 30% for an Atlas win and 27% for a draw. Our model leans slightly further towards the visitors at 45%, with 29% for Atlas and 26% for a draw. The gap is small, and it fits the visitors' stronger defensive record.
For goals, the market puts both teams scoring at about 59% and more than 2.5 goals at about 55%. Our model is a little higher at 61% and 59%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 17 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win30% market29% model3.34 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market26% model3.67 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win43% market45% model2.34 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals55% market59% model1.81 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals45% market41% model2.23 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.