The state of play
Al Faisaly have not won in the Saudi Pro League this season. Seven games have brought three draws, four defeats and three points, which leaves them 15th with a goal difference of -8. They have scored five and conceded 13.
Al-Kholood arrive in eighth place with 12 points from eight games: three wins, three draws and two defeats. Their goal difference is -3, and nine points separate the sides.
Neither club has reported any listed absences, so there is no team news to shift the picture. The sides have no previous meetings to draw on here, so this fixture rests on current numbers.
The numbers behind it
Al Faisaly's expected goals tell a story about attack more than defence. They have created 6.4 xG in seven games, roughly 0.9 a match, and scored five. At the other end they have faced 12.8 xG and conceded 13, so their record in defence matches the chances they have allowed.
Al-Kholood's profile is more balanced and more open. They have 13.6 xG for and 13.3 against across eight games, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded. They create about 1.7 xG a match, almost double Al Faisaly's rate, but they also give up chances.
Over the last 10 matches, Al-Kholood have won three, drawn three and lost four, scoring 13 and conceding 19, for 1.2 points a match. Al Faisaly have won two, drawn three and lost five, scoring 10 and conceding 16, for 0.9 points a match. Both sides have conceded more than a goal and a half per game across that run.
Our view
The betting market implies about 45% for an Al-Kholood win, 27% for a draw and 28% for an Al Faisaly win. Our model is close to that, at 43% for the visitors, 27% for a draw and 30% for the hosts.
The gap is small. Our model gives Al Faisaly slightly more than the market does, but nothing in the numbers explains why in a way we can state with confidence. Al-Kholood's edge in expected goals and points supports the visitors being favoured, while their own leaky defence keeps the hosts in contention. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 12 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win28% market30% model3.54 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market27% model3.75 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win45% market43% model2.22 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.