The state of play
Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Club arrive level on eight points, with Rayo 12th and Athletic 10th. Rayo have played seven matches, Athletic six, so the visitors have a game in hand on the same total.
Rayo have two wins, two draws and three defeats, and their goal difference is minus five after 11 scored and 16 conceded. Their league sequence reads D-W-L-W-L. Athletic have also won two, drawn two and lost two, with seven scored, six conceded and a goal difference of plus one. Their sequence is D-D-W-W-L.
Head to head
Athletic hold a clear edge across 48 meetings: 26 wins to Rayo's 10, with 12 draws. The recent record is more lopsided still. Athletic have won four of the last five, and the other ended 1-1 in February.
Rayo have scored only three goals in those five games, against Athletic's eight. The meetings have still averaged 3.02 goals, so low Rayo output has not made for dull games.
The numbers behind it
The gap between the sides is at the back. Rayo have conceded 12.3 expected goals in seven matches, against 8.9 created, and the real figure of 16 conceded is worse than that. Athletic have faced 6.6 expected goals in six games and created 9.5, so their underlying numbers are positive.
Over the last 10 matches, Rayo have three wins, two draws and five defeats (1.1 points per match), scoring 15 and conceding 23. Athletic have four wins, two draws and four defeats (1.4 points per match), scoring 12 and conceding 10. Rayo's matches have produced goals at both ends; Athletic's have been tighter.
Our view
The betting market implies about 35% for a Rayo win, 28% for a draw and 37% for an Athletic win. Our model is close to that: 37% home, 27% draw and 36% away. The difference is a point or two either way, which is well within the uncertainty of estimates like these.
Both sides scoring is put at about 56% by the market and 57% by our model. For more than 2.5 goals, the market implies about 50% and our model 53%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates of a close contest, not forecasts of the result.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win35% market37% model2.88 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market27% model3.55 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win37% market36% model2.70 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals50% market53% model2.00 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals50% market47% model2.00 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.