Deportivo lose Aubameyang and Amatucci for Levante visit

The state of play

Deportivo de A Coruña are missing two regulars at Riazor. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is injured with a meniscus problem. He started seven of the last eight squad records and scored five goals in that spell, so the home side lose most of their cutting edge. Lorenzo Amatucci is suspended after a red card, and he started seven of eight too. Marc Casadó is also injured, though he has been more of a rotation option.

Deportivo sit eighth with 10 points from eight matches, built on two wins, four draws and two defeats. Their last five read one win, two draws and two defeats. Levante UD are 17th with six points from seven: one win, three draws and three defeats. Their sequence of draw, defeat, defeat, draw, win shows a first victory arriving only recently.

Levante's only listed absentee is Hugo Sotelo, out with a sprained knee. He started two of eight, so the effect should be limited.

Head to head

The clubs have met 20 times. Deportivo have won nine, Levante six and five have been drawn, an average of 2.3 goals a game.

Levante have won the two most recent meetings, both by 2-1: at home in October 2024 and at Riazor in January 2025. Before that, two meetings in 2017 and 2018 finished 2-2.

The numbers behind it

Deportivo have scored 12 goals from 8.9 expected, so they have finished well above the chances they have created. Without Aubameyang, that overperformance is harder to sustain. They have conceded 11 against 10.0 expected, a defence performing roughly as its chances suggest.

Levante's attack has matched its output: 11 goals from 10.7 expected. The problem is at the back, with 15 conceded against 14.8 expected and a goal difference of -4. Deportivo's is +1.

Across the last 10 matches Levante average 1.2 points a game, with three wins, three draws and four defeats, and a record of 16 goals scored and 18 conceded. Deportivo average 1.1 from two wins, five draws and three defeats, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Drawn games make up half of Deportivo's recent record.

Our view

The betting market implies about 45% for a Deportivo win, 28% for a draw and 28% for a Levante win. Our model leans a little higher on the home side at 47%, with 26% for the draw and 27% for the away win. The gap is small and well within the uncertainty of football, a high-variance sport.

On goals, the market puts the chance of three or more at about 50% and of both sides scoring at 54%. Our model is slightly higher on both, at 56% and 59%. These are estimates, not predictions, and the absences at Riazor are a reason for caution.