The state of play
Martinique host El Salvador at the Stade Pierre-Aliker in Fort-de-France on 5 October, kick-off 22:00 UTC, on Matchday 4 of League A, Group B in the CONCACAF Nations League. No group table is supplied, so the story rests on form and recent meetings.
Neither side comes in on a good run. Martinique have one win, three draws and six defeats from their last 10 matches, a sequence of W-L-L-L-D-D-L-L-L-D worth 0.6 points per match. El Salvador have done slightly better, with two wins, two draws and six defeats (L-L-W-D-L-W-D-L-L-L) for 0.8 points per match.
Those returns are close enough that home advantage could matter, and the market sees it the same way.
Head to head
The five most recent meetings are perfectly balanced: two wins each and one draw, with an average of 1.8 goals per game. These are tight, low-scoring fixtures.
The recent trend favours El Salvador. They won 3-1 at home on 26 September and 1-0 in Fort-de-France on 29 March. Before that, Martinique won 1-0 at home in October 2023 and 2-1 away in June 2023, with a goalless draw in El Salvador in between.
Four of the five meetings were decided by a single goal or ended level. The 3-1 result last month was the only exception.
The numbers behind it
Goals have been scarce at both ends of the attack. Each side has scored six times in their last 10 matches, an average of 0.6 per game.
The defensive records differ more. Martinique have conceded 13 goals in that run, while El Salvador have conceded 20, two per match on average. That defensive weakness is the clearest contrast in the figures and sits awkwardly beside El Salvador's recent results in this fixture.
On form alone there is little between two sides who have each won no more than twice in 10.
Our view
Prices from 15 bookmakers imply about a 38% chance of a Martinique win, 28% for a draw and 35% for El Salvador. That is a narrow edge for the hosts, consistent with home advantage and their slightly better defensive record.
On goals, the market leans marginally towards an open game. It implies about 51% for more than 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score. That sits a little above the 1.8-goal average from recent meetings and the low scoring of both sides lately.
No model estimate is available for this fixture, so we offer no view beyond the market's. With probabilities this evenly spread, any of the three results is plausible, and international football between closely matched sides is especially hard to call.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakers
- Home win38% market2.64 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market3.63 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win35% market2.89 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals51% market1.95 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals49% market2.06 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.