Bermuda seek a first win in ten as Barbados return days after a 4-1 victory

The state of play

Bermuda and Barbados meet for the second time in four days on Matchday 4 of League B, Group B in the CONCACAF Nations League. Kick-off at the BFA Technical Centre in Bridgetown is at 00:00 UTC on 6 October, with Bermuda listed as the home side.

No group table is available, so recent results tell the story. Bermuda have no wins in their last ten matches: one draw and nine defeats, a return of 0.1 points per match. Their sequence reads L-L-L-L-L-D-L-L-L-L.

Barbados have been more mixed but clearly stronger: three wins, two draws and five defeats from ten, or 1.1 points per match. Their sequence is W-D-W-L-L-L-L-W-L-D.

Head to head

The longer record favours Bermuda. Across five meetings they have won three, Barbados one, and one ended level. These fixtures have averaged 4 goals a game.

The most recent meeting cuts the other way. On 3 October, Barbados won 4-1 at home. Before that, Bermuda won 8-1 in July 2021, the sides drew 0-0 in March 2018, and Bermuda won both meetings in November 2011, 2-1 and 2-1.

The numbers behind it

The goal columns show the gap in recent form. Bermuda have scored 8 and conceded 35 in their last ten matches, so they have been leaking goals heavily.

Barbados have scored 17 and conceded 20 over the same span. Their defence has also been beaten regularly, but they have scored more than twice as many goals as Bermuda. That supports the expectation of goals at both ends.

Our view

Across 13 bookmakers, the betting market implies about a 53% chance of a Barbados win. It puts a Bermuda win at about 24% and a draw at about 23%.

Our model leans further towards the visitors at 60%. It rates Bermuda at 21% and the draw at 19%. The gap reflects the supplied form figures, especially Bermuda's one draw in ten and their 35 goals conceded. Even so, the difference between the estimates is modest and should be treated as uncertain.

On goals, the market implies about 64% that both teams score, and our model estimates 69%. These are estimates, not predictions. International football at this level is high-variance, and Bermuda's head-to-head record is a reminder that recent form does not settle every fixture.