The state of play
Luxembourg meet Bulgaria at the Stade de Luxembourg on 6 October, kick-off 18:45 UTC, in League C, Group 4 of the UEFA Nations League. It is Matchday 4, and Andris Treimanis is the referee.
Recent results favour the hosts. Luxembourg have won four and lost six of their last ten matches (L-L-W-W-L-W-W-L-L-L), an average of 1.2 points per game. Bulgaria have won one, drawn two and lost seven (L-D-L-D-L-W-L-L-L-L), or 0.5 points per game.
Head to head
The two sides have met six times. The record shows one win for Luxembourg, two for Bulgaria and three draws, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.
The most recent meeting went Luxembourg's way, 2-1 in Bulgaria on 26 September. Before that, the contests were tight. Bulgaria won 1-0 in Luxembourg in November 2024, the two sides drew 0-0 in October 2024 and November 2022, and they drew 1-1 in Luxembourg in October 2017. Three of the five listed meetings produced no more than two goals.
The numbers behind it
Defence separates the sides. Luxembourg have scored 8 and conceded 11 in their last ten matches, a goal difference of minus 3. Bulgaria have scored 6 and conceded 24, a difference of minus 18. That is an average of 2.4 goals against per game, against 1.1 for Luxembourg.
Neither attack has been prolific. The two sides have combined for 14 goals in 20 matches, which fits a head-to-head history built on low scores.
Our view
Across 14 bookmakers, the betting market implies about a 46% chance of a home win, 29% for a draw and 25% for a Bulgaria win. Our model leans slightly further towards the hosts, at 51% for a Luxembourg win, 27% for the draw and 22% for Bulgaria. Their stronger recent points return and Bulgaria's heavy goals-against record are the likeliest reasons for that gap. It is modest, and estimates of this kind carry real uncertainty.
Both the market and the model expect a low-scoring game. Each puts the chance of fewer than three goals at about 61%. The market rates both teams scoring at about 45%, and the model at 42%. Football is a high-variance sport, and one goal can overturn any of these figures.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 14 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win46% market51% model2.18 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw29% market27% model3.49 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win25% market22% model3.94 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals39% market39% model2.55 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals61% market61% model1.65 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.