The state of play
Scotland and Slovenia meet for the second time in ten days, at Hampden Park in League B, Group 1 of the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off on matchday four is at 18:45 UTC on 6 October, with José María Sánchez Martínez the referee.
Neither side arrives in commanding form. Scotland have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 (W-L-D-L-L-W-W-W-L-L), an average of 1.3 points per match. A run of three straight wins has given way to two defeats in their most recent outings.
Slovenia's last 10 read L-W-D-L-D-W-L-D-L-D: 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, or 1.0 point per match. Draws are a recurring theme, with four in that run.
Head to head
Slovenia have yet to beat Scotland in six meetings. Scotland have won 2 and the other 4 have been drawn, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.
The most recent meeting, in Slovenia on 26 September, finished 0-0. Before that came a 2-2 draw in Slovenia in October 2017 and a 1-0 Scotland win at home in March 2017. Scotland's widest margin in the listed meetings was a 3-0 away win in October 2005.
The numbers behind it
Goals have been scarce at both ends. Scotland have scored 11 and conceded 10 across their last 10 matches, a goal difference of plus one. Slovenia have scored 9 and conceded 11, a difference of minus two.
Neither side is averaging much more than a goal a game, which fits the pattern of their meetings and the goalless draw last month.
Our view
Across 15 bookmakers, the betting market implies about a 53% chance of a Scotland win, 27% for a draw and 20% for Slovenia. Our model is more cautious on the hosts at 47%, with the draw at 29% and Slovenia at 24%.
That gap is modest and likely reflects the thin recent records on both sides, Scotland's two straight defeats and Slovenia's unbeaten head-to-head run. The market puts under 2.5 goals at about 58%; our model leans further that way at 64%, and estimates both teams scoring at 40% against the market's 45%.
These are estimates, not forecasts. International football is high-variance, and small margins of this kind can easily be overturned on the night.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win53% market47% model1.87 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw27% market29% model3.74 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win20% market24% model5.03 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals42% market36% model2.40 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals58% market64% model1.72 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.