Switzerland host a North Macedonia side without a win in ten, days after a 3-0 victory in Skopje

The state of play

The gap in form between these two sides is wide. Switzerland have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten matches, collecting 2.1 points per match. North Macedonia have not won in that time: four draws, six defeats and 0.4 points per match.

The sequences tell the same story. Switzerland's last ten read W-W-W-L-D-W-W-W-D-D, so their only defeat came seven matches ago, although they have drawn their two most recent. North Macedonia's run, L-L-L-L-D-D-L-L-D-D, does end with back-to-back draws, which counts as their steadiest stretch in the sequence.

The fixture is League B, Group 1, Matchday 4 of the UEFA Nations League, with kick-off at 18:45 UTC on 6 October at the Swissporarena in Lucerne. Edgars Malcevs is the referee.

Head to head

The facts list one meeting, and it was recent and decisive. On 26 September Switzerland won 3-0 away to North Macedonia. That single result is the whole head-to-head record here, so it offers a snapshot rather than a trend, but it points in the same direction as the form guide.

The numbers behind it

Goals sharpen the contrast. Switzerland have scored 19 and conceded 8 across their last ten matches, a steady return at both ends. North Macedonia have scored 2 and conceded 23 over the same number of games.

For the visitors, the attacking figure is the more pressing one. Two goals in ten matches means that even their four draws have largely been goalless or low-scoring affairs, and it leaves little margin if they fall behind in Lucerne. Switzerland, for their part, have kept their concessions below a goal a game while scoring close to two.

Our view

The betting market, drawn from 13 bookmakers, implies about an 87% chance of a Switzerland win, 10% for a draw and 4% for North Macedonia. Our model is a little less emphatic on the home side at 82%, with the draw at 13% and an away win at 5%.

On goals, the market implies about 67% for over 2.5 and our model sits at 62%. Both put the chance of both teams scoring at roughly 35 to 36%, which fits North Macedonia's two goals in ten matches.

The differences between market and model are small and should not be overstated. Football is high-variance, and a heavy favourite can still be held, as Switzerland's two most recent draws are a reminder.