The state of play
Croatia and Spain meet again in League A, Group 3 of the UEFA Nations League, seven days after Spain won 4-1 on home soil. Matchday 4 kicks off at 18:45 UTC on 6 October at Stadion Poljud in Split, with Eric Lambrechts as referee.
The form lines could hardly be further apart. Spain's last ten results read W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W-W: ten wins, no draws, no defeats and a maximum three points per match. Croatia's sequence is L-L-W-L-W-W-L-W-L-L, giving four wins and six defeats at 1.2 points per match. Their last two results were both defeats.
Head to head
Spain lead the record across eight meetings with five wins to Croatia's two, with one draw. These fixtures have rarely been quiet, averaging 3.88 goals per game.
The recent run favours the visitors. After the 4-1 win on 29 September, Spain also won 3-0 in June 2024. Before that came a goalless draw in June 2023 and a 5-3 Spain win in June 2021. Croatia's most recent win in the five listed meetings was a 3-2 victory in November 2018.
The numbers behind it
Over their last ten matches Spain have scored 24 goals and conceded five, a goal difference of plus 19. That works out at 2.4 scored and 0.5 conceded per game.
Croatia have scored 12 and conceded 25 over the same span, a goal difference of minus 13. Conceding 2.5 goals per game is the figure that stands out. Against a side scoring at Spain's rate, it points to a difficult evening at the back unless that trend turns.
There is one note of balance. Croatia have still found the net at 1.2 goals per game, and the head-to-head record shows they have scored three times in two of the last five meetings.
Our view
The betting market implies about a 74% chance of a Spain win, 16% for a draw and 10% for a Croatia win. Our model leans slightly further towards Spain, at 78%, with 13% for a draw and 9% for Croatia. The gap is small. It reflects Spain's perfect recent record and Croatia's leaky defence rather than any decisive edge.
On goals, the market implies about a 65% chance of three or more, and our model is higher at 72%. Both figures fit a fixture averaging 3.88 goals. The market puts both sides scoring at about 52%, and our model at 56%.
These are estimates, not predictions. Football is high-variance, and even strong favourites drop points more often than raw form suggests.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win10% market9% model9.79 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw16% market13% model6.33 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win74% market78% model1.35 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals65% market72% model1.53 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals35% market28% model2.88 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.