The state of play
Chicago Fire sit fifth in MLS with 48 points from 28 games, six clear of Philadelphia Union in 12th on 42. Chicago have won three in a row, but those wins followed two defeats, and before that came four draws.
Philadelphia have the stronger recent run. They have won their last seven, then drawn twice and won again before that, so they are unbeaten in ten with eight wins, two draws and 31 goals scored against 12 conceded. That is 2.6 points a match. Chicago's last ten return 1.6 points a match, with 17 goals for and 16 against.
The home side's team news is poor. André Franco is out with a cruciate ligament injury and has started five of Chicago's last eight league matches. Dje Tah D'Avilla is suspended after a card and has started seven of the last eight. Robin Lod is also listed with a knock, though he has been more of a rotation option, with four starts in that spell. Neither Franco nor D'Avilla has scored lately, so the loss is felt in the back and midfield rather than in goals.
Philadelphia's only listed absentee is Agustin Anello, a muscle injury who has not started in his side's last eight records. FotMob reports that Ryan Richter is looking forward to the test in Chicago as the visitors try to protect their unbeaten run.
Head to head
The clubs have met 39 times, and 10 of those games ended level. The average is 3.15 goals a game, so these meetings tend to be open.
The recent record leans towards Philadelphia, who won three of the last five. They won 1-0 in Chicago in June, then 4-0 at home in August, and 3-0 in Chicago on 1 November. In between came a 2-2 draw. Chicago's one win in that run was a 2-1 victory at Philadelphia in March, the most recent meeting.
The numbers behind it
Chicago have scored 51 goals and conceded 40, a goal difference of +11, from expected totals of 49.6 for and 37.2 against. Their results are close to what their chances suggest, with slightly more goals conceded than expected.
Philadelphia also have a goal difference of +11, built differently: 56 scored and 45 conceded. Their expected figures are 52.2 for and 39.2 against, so they have scored more than their chances suggest and let in more than expected as well. That gives them a wider range of outcomes, and more goals in their games.
Philadelphia have won 12, drawn six and lost 10 of 28, which is why a side with such a strong last ten sits 12th. Chicago have won 14, drawn six and lost eight. The table gap reflects a longer season; the recent record points the other way. Football is high-variance, and two missing starters add to the uncertainty on the home side.