Belarus seek a first win over Finland at the fifth attempt, a week after a goalless draw

The state of play

Belarus and Finland meet again on Matchday 4 of League C, Group 1 in the UEFA Nations League, eight days after their 0-0 draw in Finland on 29 September. Kick-off at the Stadion Rudolf Illovszky in Budapest is at 18:45 UTC on 6 October, with Sascha Stegemann the referee.

Recent form favours Belarus. Over their last 10 matches they have won four, drawn four and lost two, a sequence of W-D-L-D-W-W-W-D-D-L worth 1.6 points per match. Finland have won four, drawn one and lost five, W-D-W-L-L-W-L-L-W-L, for 1.3 points per match. Belarus have lost half as many games as Finland over that run, which suggests a side that is harder to beat.

Head to head

Belarus have yet to beat Finland. In four meetings Finland have won twice and two have been drawn. Finland won 1-0 at home on 7 June 2013, the sides drew 1-1 in Belarus four days later, Finland won 2-0 at home on 9 June 2018, and last month's meeting finished goalless.

These have been low-scoring affairs. The four games averaged 1.25 goals, and Belarus have scored only once against Finland in that time.

The numbers behind it

The goals columns tell two different stories. Belarus have scored 16 and conceded 10 across their last 10 matches, a goal difference of plus six. Finland have scored 17, one more than Belarus, but conceded 16, leaving them only one goal to the good.

Finland therefore bring the slightly sharper attack and Belarus the tighter defence. Set against the head-to-head record, and last week's goalless draw, that points towards another fixture in which chances may be scarce.

Our view

Across 12 bookmakers, the betting market implies about a 46% chance of a Finland win, 28% for a draw and 26% for Belarus. Our model agrees that Finland are the more likely winners but leans less heavily towards them, at 41%, with the draw at 28% and Belarus at 32%.

The six-point gap on a Belarus win is consistent with their better recent points-per-match and goal difference, while the market appears to weigh Finland's unbeaten head-to-head record more heavily. Either way, the difference is modest and the estimate is uncertain.

On goals, the market puts both teams scoring at about 47% and our model at 46%, while a clean sheet for either side sits at around 53% and 54%. Both views lean, narrowly, towards at least one side failing to score. Football is high-variance, and a single moment can overturn any of these figures.