Arsenal's four-match winning run meets unbeaten Leeds, who have lost 5-0 and 4-0 to them

The state of play

Arsenal are second with 12 points from five matches. They lost the opener, then won four in a row, and the sequence reads L-W-W-W-W. Four wins and one defeat have brought eight goals for and four against.

Leeds sit fifth on 9 points and are the only one of the two sides without a league defeat. Their five matches have produced two wins and three draws, in the order D-W-D-D-W. Their goal difference of +4 matches Arsenal's, and they have conceded just three times.

Over the last 10 matches, Arsenal have won seven, drawn one and lost two, an average of 2.2 points a game. Leeds have won five, drawn four and lost one, averaging 1.9.

Head to head

Arsenal have the better of a long record: 23 wins in 37 meetings, against eight for Leeds and six draws. Meetings average 2.89 goals.

The recent ones have been one-sided. Arsenal won 5-0 at home in August 2025 and 4-0 at Leeds in January 2026. Before that, they won 4-1 at home in April 2023 and 1-0 away in October 2022. Leeds' last win in the five most recent meetings is not among them; their closest was a 2-1 defeat in May 2022.

The numbers behind it

Arsenal's expected goals read 8.4 for and 3.9 against across five matches. They have scored slightly fewer than that suggests, with eight, and conceded almost exactly what the chances against them warranted.

Leeds present a different profile. They have created 8 expected goals and scored seven, but the chances they have allowed total 5.7 against three goals conceded. That leaves them having conceded roughly three fewer goals than the quality of chances against them would suggest, so their defensive record has an element of fortune that may not hold.

Across the last 10 matches, each side has scored 19 goals. Leeds have conceded 10 and Arsenal 11, so goals at both ends are not unusual for either.

Our view

The betting market implies about 68% for an Arsenal win, 19% for a draw and 13% for a Leeds win. Our model leans a little more cautiously, at 62% for Arsenal, 22% for the draw and 15% for Leeds.

The gap is small. It is consistent with Leeds' unbeaten start and their three draws in five, which the model appears to weigh slightly more than the market does. Both put the chance of both sides scoring below half, at 45% in the market and 42% in our model.

These are estimates, not forecasts, and football is high-variance: a 5-0 and a 4-0 in the last two meetings show what is possible, not what will happen.