Numbers
- Market prob.
- 58%
- Fair odds
- 1.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Football · 10 October 2026
Dream slip · odds 105.35
Ten legs: big home favourites, two Bundesliga games and Real Madrid for goals, and weak away attacks for 'no' on both teams scoring.
What to play
- Odds
- 105.35
- Selections
- 10
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 56%
- Fair odds
- 1.79
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.3%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 60%
- Fair odds
- 1.66
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.6%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 55%
- Fair odds
- 1.82
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.1%
- Bookmakers
- 5
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 66%
- Fair odds
- 1.51
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 66%
- Fair odds
- 1.52
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.8%
- Bookmakers
- 5
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 52%
- Fair odds
- 1.91
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.2%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 59%
- Fair odds
- 1.70
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.0%
- Bookmakers
- 5
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 54%
- Fair odds
- 1.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
- Bookmakers
- 17
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 63%
- Fair odds
- 1.58
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.0%
- Bookmakers
- 17
Why this pick
Getafe have scored 2 goals in their last 6 away games, with an away xG of just 0.32 per match. Barcelona have won all 6 at home, so a one-sided game is likely.
The numbers behind it
- Both teams not to score: bookmaker consensus 58% (fair odds 1.73, offered 1.62) · analyst estimate 62% · 16 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.62 the bookmaker keeps about 6.4% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 0%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
The slip pairs three types of leg. Where the away side barely creates chances (Getafe, Parma, Remo, Leeds), we back them not to score. Two home favourites, Leipzig and Hoffenheim, come with strong underlying numbers. We also back goals in three games: Mainz v Leverkusen, Real Madrid v Villarreal and Augsburg v Bayern.
The strongest legs are Hoffenheim against a Hamburg side with 2 goals in 4 league games, and Leipzig, who have won all 6 at home 18-2. Barcelona v Getafe is also solid on 'no' for both teams scoring: Getafe create 0.32 xG per match away.
The weakest legs are Real Madrid over 3.5 goals and Arsenal v Leeds with 'no' for both teams scoring. The first needs a high-scoring game. In the second, Leeds have scored 12 goals in 6 away games, despite low xG. Both are priced close to a coin flip.
Combined odds are about 105. With ten legs at around 55-66% each, this is a long shot that will usually fail. It is here for fun, not as a forecast.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.