Standard Liège's leaky defence meets Charleroi's best-in-form attack with fourth against seventh

The state of play

Charleroi sit fourth with 18 points from seven games, seven more than seventh-placed Standard Liège on 11. The visitors have won six and lost one, and their league sequence reads W-W-L-W-W.

Standard have rebuilt after a slow start. Two defeats are followed by three straight wins in the league sequence (L-L-W-W-W), and they have three wins, two draws and two defeats overall. Their goal difference is +1, against +8 for Charleroi.

Over the last 10 matches in all, Charleroi have won seven, drawn one and lost two, collecting 2.2 points per match. Standard have won four, drawn two and lost four, at 1.4 points per match.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 87 times, with 22 draws, and those games have averaged 2.7 goals.

Charleroi have the better recent record. They won 2-0 on 23 May and 2-0 on 18 January, and 1-0 on 4 May 2025. Standard won 2-1 on 18 April and 3-1 on 31 October 2025, so the last five meetings split three to two.

The numbers behind it

Charleroi's expected goals back up their results. They have scored 15 goals from 13.6 xG and conceded seven against 7.4 xG, so the defensive record is no accident of finishing or goalkeeping.

Standard's underlying figures are less settled. They have scored 13 from 12.7 xG, but conceded 12 against 10.6 xG. That is a side creating slightly more than it allows, by 2.1 xG over seven games, yet still giving up close to two goals a match.

Across the last 10 matches Charleroi have scored 21 and conceded 13. Standard have scored 15 and conceded 17, so their recent games have tended to leave them chasing.

Our view

The betting market implies about 32% for a Standard win, 27% for a draw and 40% for a Charleroi win. Our model leans further towards the visitors: 30% home, 25% draw and 45% away.

The gap is modest and fits Charleroi's expected-goals profile and recent points return. On goals, the market implies about 53% for over 2.5 and 57% for both sides to score, while our model puts those at 58% and 60%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates, not predictions.