Brann host Eliteserien leaders Viking, who have lost three times all season

The state of play

Viking arrive in Bergen top of the Eliteserien with 50 points from 21 games, 21 more than Brann, who sit seventh on 29. Viking have won 16, drawn two and lost three. Brann have won nine and lost 10.

Viking's last five reads W-W-D-W-L, so their most recent outing was a defeat, only their third of the campaign. Brann's last five reads W-L-L-D-W, a run that ended with a win.

Over the last 10 matches Viking have taken 2.0 points a game from six wins, two draws and two defeats. Brann have averaged 1.4 from four wins, two draws and four defeats.

Head to head

The two clubs have met 31 times, with nine draws. Viking have taken the last two meetings: 3-2 at home in April and 3-0 at home last October. Brann won 3-1 at home in July 2025, and the two meetings before that finished 1-1.

Meetings between them have averaged 2.94 goals, so this fixture has tended to produce goals.

The numbers behind it

Viking have scored 54 and conceded 20. Their expected goals are 47 for and 23.8 against, so the underlying figures also point to a strong side, though they have scored seven more than the chances suggest. Their defence has conceded fewer than the 23.8 expected.

Brann have scored 39 and conceded 32, a goal difference of plus seven. Their expected goals read 35.5 for and 32.8 against, close to what they have actually produced. In the last 10 they have scored 15 and conceded 13, while Viking have scored 26 and conceded 12.

Our view

The betting market implies about 42% for a Viking win, 33% for a Brann win and 24% for a draw. Our model leans further towards the visitors at 48%, with Brann at 28% and the draw at 23%.

The gap between the two is modest and fits Viking's recent record and their goal output. Both sides score in about 69% of games on the market's reading and 63% on ours, while over 2.5 goals sits at 67% and 63%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.