Shimizu S-Pulse face winless Gamba Osaka, 18th and still searching for a second league win

The state of play

Shimizu S-Pulse are 10th in the J1 League with 13 points from nine games. Gamba Osaka are 18th with six, a gap of seven points that reflects very different recent runs.

Gamba have one win, three draws and five defeats this season. Their last five league results read four defeats and a draw, so they have not won in that spell. Shimizu's last five show three wins, a defeat and a draw. Across ten matches in all competitions, Shimizu average 1.9 points per match and Gamba 0.9.

Neither side has an absence listed in the line-up information, so there is no injury or suspension to weigh on either side.

Head to head

Gamba Osaka lead the series heavily: 19 wins to Shimizu's seven, with seven draws in 33 meetings. Those games have averaged 2.82 goals.

The recent record is closer. Of the last five meetings, Gamba have won two, Shimizu one and two were drawn. The latest was a 2-1 Gamba win on 24 May, and the one before it a 2-2 draw on 28 February.

The numbers behind it

Both sides have scored eight league goals, but the defensive columns separate them. Shimizu have conceded nine, for a goal difference of -1. Gamba have conceded 16, a goal difference of -8.

Expected goals suggest Shimizu's attack has been unlucky: 11.8 xG for eight goals, 3.8 fewer than the chances suggested. Gamba are further below, with 8 goals from 12.3 xG. At the back, Shimizu's 14.5 expected goals against is well below Gamba's 18.7, and Gamba have conceded 2.7 fewer than that figure.

Over the last ten matches Shimizu have scored 12 and conceded 10, while Gamba have scored 11 and conceded 13.

Our view

Our model puts Shimizu's chance of a home win at about 48%, with a draw at 26% and a Gamba win at 26%. The betting market implies about 42% for the hosts, 27% for the draw and 30% for the visitors.

The gap on the home side is six percentage points. The market gives Gamba more credit, which fits their strong record in this fixture, while the model leans on Shimizu's recent results and the better defensive numbers. On goals, the model sees 48% for over 2.5 and the market 51%, so the two are close.

These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance. A 48% chance still leaves the hosts failing to win more often than not.