Urawa seek a fourth straight win over Mito, who have taken nine points from nine

The state of play

Urawa Red Diamonds arrive in 11th with 12 points from nine games, three more than Mito Hollyhock in 13th. Urawa have won four and lost five; Mito have won two, drawn three and lost four.

Over the last 10 matches the gap widens. Urawa have six wins and four defeats, an average of 1.8 points a game. Mito have two wins, three draws and five defeats, an average of 0.9, half the visitors' rate. Mito's league sequence reads LLLDW, which means three defeats and a draw sit alongside one win in their five most recent league games.

Urawa's sequence is LWLWW, three wins in five, and they have shown they can recover quickly from a defeat.

Head to head

Urawa have won all three meetings, and Mito have never beaten them in that run. Both league games this year went the visitors' way in one and the hosts' way in the other: Urawa won 2-0 at home in March, then 4-1 at Mito in May.

The three games have averaged 3.33 goals, so this fixture has tended to open up. Mito scored in only two of the three, and their only goal in the last two came in that 4-1 defeat.

The numbers behind it

Mito have scored 12 and conceded 13, a goal difference of -1. Their expected goals tell a harder story: 10.8 created against 14.4 allowed, a deficit of 3.6 across nine games. They have been creating less than they concede.

Urawa's goal difference is -5, from 16 scored and 21 conceded, the worst defensive return of the two. Their expected figures are far more balanced, at 14.1 for and 14.5 against, a gap of only 0.4. That suggests they have conceded more than the quality of chances against them warranted.

In the last 10 matches Urawa have scored 19 and conceded 19, while Mito have scored 12 and conceded 15. Urawa's matches have been open, which fits the high-scoring pattern of the meetings between these sides.

Our view

The betting market implies about 45% for an Urawa win, 28% for a draw and 27% for a Mito win. Our model is a little more open: about 41% for Urawa, 26% for a draw and 33% for Mito.

Both agree Urawa are the more probable winners. The model gives Mito more of a chance than the market does, even though Mito's expected goals and recent points record are the weaker of the two. The difference is modest and uncertain.

On goals, the market implies about a 53% chance that both sides score, with our model at 57%. For more than 2.5 goals the market implies about 48% and our model 54%. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates, not predictions.