The state of play
Hiroshima sit second with 20 points from nine games: six wins, two draws and one defeat. Their goal difference of +16 is built on 22 scored and only six conceded, and their league sequence reads W-W-W-L-W.
Kyoto Sanga are 16th with eight points, from two wins, two draws and five defeats. They have scored 11 and conceded 16, a goal difference of -5, and their sequence is L-W-L-L-D, so they arrive without a win in their last three.
On team news, Hiroshima list Kusini Yengi as injured with a thigh problem, but he has made no recent starts, so his absence changes little. No Kyoto absences are listed.
Head to head
Hiroshima have won eight of the 15 meetings, Kyoto five, with two draws. Those games have averaged 2.87 goals.
The recent pattern is mixed. Hiroshima won 4-0 on their last visit to Kyoto in May, but Kyoto won 2-1 in Hiroshima in February. Before that came a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 Hiroshima win away and a 1-0 Kyoto win at home in the five latest meetings.
The numbers behind it
Hiroshima's underlying figures match their results. They have created 24.7 expected goals and allowed six, which is exactly the number they have actually conceded. Over their last 10 matches they have won seven, drawn two and lost one, scoring 27 and conceding seven, for 2.3 points a match.
Kyoto's underlying numbers are weaker at the back. They have allowed 15.8 expected goals against 9.9 created, so the 16 goals conceded are not simply bad luck. Their last 10 brought four wins, two draws and four defeats, with 12 scored and 14 conceded, or 1.4 points a match.
Our view
The betting market implies about 69% for a Hiroshima win, 18% for a draw and 13% for a Kyoto win. Our model leans a little higher on the hosts at 74%, with 16% for a draw and 11% for the visitors.
The gap is small. It fits Hiroshima's goal difference and their expected-goals profile, but both sets of figures are estimates, and football is high-variance. On goals, the model puts the chance of three or more at 66%, against about 65% from the market.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win69% market74% model1.45 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw18% market16% model5.51 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win13% market11% model7.72 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals65% market66% model1.53 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals35% market34% model2.88 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.