The state of play
Seventh meets 19th in J1 League, and the gap is 10 points: Yokohama F. Marinos have 15 from nine games, JEF United Chiba five. Marinos have won four, drawn three and lost two. Chiba have won once, drawn twice and lost six.
The recent sequences point the same way. Marinos' last five league results read draw, win, draw, win, draw, so they are unbeaten in that spell. Chiba's read draw, defeat, draw, win, defeat. Over the last 10 matches in all, Marinos have taken 2.1 points per game and Chiba 0.6.
No absences are listed for either side, and there is no team news to report.
Head to head
Marinos have won four of the six meetings between the clubs, Chiba none, and the other two were 1-1 draws in 2009. Both games this season went Marinos' way: 2-0 at home in March, then 3-2 in Chiba in April.
Those six games have averaged 2.83 goals, which makes the April scoreline the one result in the series where the home side scored more than once.
The numbers behind it
Chiba's problem is at the back. They have conceded 19 goals in nine games against eight scored, a goal difference of -11. Their expected goals against stands at 15.4, so the defence has been given a lot to do, not merely been unlucky. At the other end they have created 10 expected goals and scored eight.
Marinos have scored 13 and conceded nine for a goal difference of +4. Their underlying numbers are more modest: 11 expected goals for and 13.9 against. They have conceded fewer than the chances they have allowed would suggest, which is a reason for caution about how long that can last.
Over the last 10 matches, Marinos have scored 13 and conceded six. Chiba have scored nine and conceded 18.
Our view
The betting market implies about 47% for a Marinos win, 26% for a draw and 27% for a Chiba win. Our model leans a little further towards the visitors at 51%, with the draw at 26% and Chiba at 23%. The gap between the two is small, and the difference rests on Chiba's results and goals conceded over the last 10 matches.
On goals, the market implies about 52% for three or more in the match and our model about 48%, so neither side of that line is clearly favoured. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win27% market23% model3.74 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw26% market26% model3.79 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win47% market51% model2.13 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals52% market48% model1.92 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals48% market52% model2.09 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.